Expected Move Calculator
See how far the options market expects a stock to move by a chosen date, based on its implied volatility. Find the likely price range at one and two standard deviations.
Stock
Use the IV of an at-the-money option expiring on your date, from your broker's option chain.
Calendar days from today: 30
Example shown. Replace with your own numbers.
Likely price range
Expected move by date
Expected move = price × IV × √(days ÷ 365). This is one standard deviation: the market prices in roughly a 68% chance of the stock finishing inside this range, and about 95% inside two standard deviations. Real moves can be bigger, especially around earnings and news. For educational purposes only.
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is how far the options market thinks a stock is likely to move, up or down, by a certain date. It comes from implied volatility (IV), which is built into option prices. When traders expect bigger swings, options cost more and IV rises, so the expected move gets wider.
The expected move is one standard deviation. That means the market is pricing in roughly a 68% chance (about 2 in 3) that the stock finishes inside the range, and about a 95% chance (19 in 20) that it finishes inside twice that range.
How to use this calculator
1. Enter the stock's current price. Adding the ticker symbol is optional.
2. Enter the implied volatility. Use the IV of an at-the-money option that expires on or near your date, from your broker's option chain.
3. Set the date you're interested in, or type the number of days from today.
The calculator updates as you type. You'll see:
- The expected move in dollars and as a percentage, plus the typical daily move.
- The 68% range (one standard deviation) and the 95% range (two standard deviations).
- A bell-curve chart showing where the stock is most likely to finish, with both ranges shaded.
- A table of the expected move for a range of dates, from tomorrow out to your chosen date and beyond.
When is it most useful?
- Choosing strike prices for trades that sell options, such as cash secured puts, covered calls, credit spreads and iron condors. Many traders place their sold strikes at or outside the expected move.
- Before an earnings report, to see how big a move the market is pricing in, and whether you think the real move will be bigger or smaller.
- Setting realistic price targets and stop levels for a trade.
- Comparing dates. The expected move grows with the square root of time, so doubling the time doesn't double the move.
Things to keep in mind
- The expected move is an estimate based on today's option prices. It changes as IV changes.
- It treats up and down moves as equally likely. In reality, stocks often fall faster than they rise, and IV is usually higher on lower strikes.
- Around earnings and big news, IV for the nearest expiry jumps, then usually drops sharply straight afterwards.
- About 1 time in 3 the stock will finish outside the 68% range. Always size your trades for that.
This calculator gives estimates for educational purposes only. It isn't financial advice.